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German exports to China fall over 12% in H1 as industrial upgrading reshapes trade structure; cooperation remains vital: expert_我的网站

调解面对面

A | 　　国家医保局近日印发《关于做好长期护理保险支付管理工作的指导意见》，对长护支付管理的相关政策和核心要素进行了梳理明确，要求试点地区利用3年左右时间逐步过渡，确保参保群众待遇稳定衔接。　　长护险支付管理是保障参保人员享受优质服务、维护基金安全平稳运行的关键环节，对长期护理服务市场健康发展具有重要牵引作用。随着长护险制度逐步发展，各地在前期探索中已初步形成符合本地实际的长护险支付管理机制，但在支付范围、支付方式、支付标准管理等方面仍存在差异，一定程度上影响群众公平享受待遇，也难以有效引导长护服务市场规范发展。

Container ships, gantry cranes and container yards are seen at the HHLA Container Terminal Burchardkai and the EUROGATE Container Terminal in Hamburg, Germany, on August 5, 2026. Photo: VCG
German exports to China fell year-on-year in the first half of 2026, pointing to a deeper restructuring of bilateral trade as China moves up the manufacturing value chain, Chinese analysts said. They also cautioned that the decline should not be read as diminishing China's importance to German businesses, given the deep economic ties and the continued benefits of cooperation for both sides.
Germany's first-half exports to China fell by more than 12 percent year-on-year to just under 37 billion euros ($43 billion), while imports from China rose 8.9 percent to 91.8 billion euros, according to data from Germany Trade & Invest (GTAI) cited by Reuters on Sunday. Germany's trade deficit with China widened to about 55 billion euros from 40 billion euros a year earlier, the report said.
Reuters cited Corinne Abele, GTAI's East Asia expert, as pointing to weaker domestic demand and the fact that German companies are increasingly producing inside China.
Commerzbank economist Vincent Stamer said that China's diminishing reliance on Germany showed that the country is becoming more independent of Western powers and catching up technologically, according to Reuters.
China has continued to strengthen its capabilities in sectors including new-energy vehicles, artificial intelligence and advanced manufacturing, enabling more products and technologies that previously depended on imports to be supplied domestically, Zhao Junjie, a senior research fellow at the Institute of European Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Sunday.
"This means the structure of China-Germany trade is changing," Zhao said, noting that as Chinese industries move up the value chain, China's reliance on some German industrial products is declining, while Chinese companies are becoming more competitive in sectors where German manufacturers traditionally enjoyed strong advantages.
In a position paper released on July 28, China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) said that the rapid growth of China's modern industries is driven by innovation, with nationwide research and development (R&D) spending growing by an average of 10 percent annually during the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) period.
The changing trade trend is also linked to Germany's own industrial competitiveness and policy environment, Zhao said, noting that high energy costs, demographic pressures and slower investment in some emerging technologies have weighed on the country's industrial upgrading and innovation.
At the same time, political and security considerations have increasingly shaped Germany's economic policy toward China, as Berlin has moved closer to the broader US and EU "de-risking" agenda, Zhao said.
"Such policies can be a double-edged sword, raising costs for German companies in China and disrupting bilateral economic cooperation while seeking to pressure Chinese industries."
However, it is notable that overall China-Germany trade remained substantial. Total bilateral trade exceeded 128 billion euros in the first half, about 3 billion euros more than Germany's trade with the US, according to Reuters.
China overtook the US as Germany's top trading partner in 2025 after US President Donald Trump launched sweeping protectionist tariffs that weighed on German exports to the US.
Falling German exports should not be seen as diminishing China's importance to German businesses, especially as bilateral ties are increasingly expanding beyond trade into investment, local production and R&D, analysts said.
German companies invested more than 7 billion euros in China in the first 11 months of 2025, up 55.5 percent from 4.5 billion euros in 2024 and 2023 and hitting a four-year high. German companies are bulking up their China business and adopting "China for China" production strategies partly to reduce exposure to possible tariffs and export restrictions, according to Reuters.
Major German companies are also deepening their presence in China. BASF's Verbund site in Zhanjiang, South China's Guangdong Province went fully operational in March with an investment of 8.7 billion euros, the largest single investment project wholly owned by a German enterprise in China, the Xinhua News Agency reported.
"China and Germany have developed deeply intertwined economic interests over many years," Zhao said. Rather than treating stronger Chinese industries as a reason to reduce cooperation, Germany should adapt to a relationship in which competition increasingly coexists with investment, innovation and industrial collaboration, he noted.
Recent high-level exchanges have also underscored the importance both sides attach to economic ties. During a meeting with German Economy Minister Katherina Reiche in May, Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng said that China and Germany are important economic and trade partners with a solid foundation, enormous potential and strong complementarity, calling on both sides to consolidate cooperation in traditional sectors and tap opportunities in emerging fields, according to the Xinhua News Agency.
Reiche said that the German business community remained confident about China's economic prospects and innovation capabilities and would continue to deepen cooperation, Xinhua reported.
The two sides have also moved to strengthen institutional mechanisms. China and Germany agreed to restart the China-Germany Joint Economic Committee and establish two new working groups on trade and investment and industrial cooperation, according to the MOFCOM.
。　　明确支付范围　　《指导意见》首先明确了支付范围。长护险基金可以报销失能等级评定机构做失能评估的费用、定点养老护理机构提供的长期照护服务费，还有第三方机构帮忙经办管理的相关费用。　　失能评估的费用，会根据实际情况，由基金和个人共同分担，防止大家随便申请、过度评估。一般来说，参保人第一次失能评估合格，还有按规定定期复查评估的费用，长护险基金支付。　　长护服务费用支付范围依据《国家长期护理保险服务项目目录》确定，符合目录的相关护理服务费用，可按规定报销。超出支付范围的护理服务费用由参保人员个人或其他渠道支付。

B | 明确区分基本医保、长护险支付范围和情形，两项制度原则上不得重复支付。　　规范支付方式　　《指导意见》明确，评估服务以按人次付费为主。护理服务以按时长付费为主，区分不同服务类型合理确定时长计费单元，原则上居家护理服务按小时付费；机构护理服务按床日付费；社区护理服务根据提供服务具体情况确定付费单元。

C | 　　随着人口形势变化和制度发展，国家层面还将统一探索对纳入长期护理保险支付范围的智能化服务、支持性辅助器具等，采取按定额或按项目付费等方式。　　合理确定支付标准　　《指导意见》明确，根据长护险基金支撑能力、参保人基本保障需求、长护服务供给情况等，合理确定长期护理保险支付标准，并动态调整。　　护理服务支付标准依据本地区经济发展水平、社会平均工资、相关行业费用水平、长期照护师等护理服务人员专业技能等分档设置。服务时长限额依据长护险基金用于护理服务的年度支出预算、待遇享受人数、护理服务支付标准、支付比例等综合确定，并结合参保类型等予以调整。

D | 　　原则上单个项目服务时长不超过服务项目目录推荐的服务时长上限。参保人员基金年度最高支付限额不超过统筹地区上年度城乡居民人均可支配收入的50%。　　各地要统筹考虑居家、机构、社区等护理服务形式，做好按床日支付标准与按小时支付标准的比照衔接，鼓励使用居家和社区护理服务。各省级医保部门统筹省内各统筹地区间护理服务支付标准、支付时长等待遇水平相对统一，避免差异过大，鼓励有条件的省份统一省域内评估服务支付标准。　　严格基金管理监督　　《指导意见》要求科学编制长护险基金年度预算，加强预算绩效管理，做好基金会计核算，建立基金运行监控和风险防范机制。　　强化定点评估机构、定点长护服务机构以及社会力量经办机构绩效考核。

E | 加强经办智能审核，切实提高审核拨付效率。对于评估服务未按规定执行，评估通过率畸高畸低的；护理服务未按照护理服务计划执行、未达到服务项目目录要求的；以及社会力量经办机构未按规定管理的，基金将按一定比例扣除直至拒付。长护险基金支付不得由第三方社会力量代管代拨。　　《指导意见》明确，重点加强对长护险失能等级评估行为、护理服务行为以及社会力量参与经办管理服务等的监管，逐步将长护险基金使用纳入飞行检查、日常监管、社会监督、智能监管等常态化监管范围，探索将监管延伸到个人。研究探索适应长护险特点的信用管理制度。同时加强对定点长护服务机构服务收费价格、评估机构评估收费价格的动态监测，保障参保人合法权益。